Why is Social Insurance Coverage Declining in Egypt? A Decomposition Analysis

We analyse the decline in social insurance coverage in Egypt from 2007 to 2023 to determine the extent to which it was due to compositional shifts in the structure of the economy and workforce, or to changes in coverage for specific types of jobs and workers. We conclude that only a fraction of the decline in coverage can be attributed to structural changes in the economy. The largest decline in coverage occurred in the period from 2014 to 2017 and was concentrated among male new entrants with no formal education in private sector services working in micro and small enterprises. Although the decline occurred for both wage and non-wage workers, it was larger for the latter. Correcting for firm size, we see a slight reversal in the declining trend post 2018. This reversal was not sustained and coverage rates in 2023 remain well below what they were in 2014.